Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
