Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
